Difference between revisions of "HadCET CUSUM analysis"
Jump to navigation
Jump to search
(Created page with "CUSUM analysis - a statistical technique borrowed from the quality control discipline - is deceptively simple to calculate by spreadsheet or even by hand yet a powerful tool f...") |
|||
| Line 6: | Line 6: | ||
# and so on | # and so on | ||
# final value = 0 ''by definition of average'' must be so | # final value = 0 ''by definition of average'' must be so | ||
| − | The thing to look for is abrupt kinks in the graph, which shout 'something changed here' | + | The thing to look for is abrupt kinks in the graph, which shout 'something changed here'. The chart below - original work by FLUKE - appears to show four distinct trend periods: 1772 to 1892, 1892 to 1932, 1932 to 1988 and 1988 to present |
| + | |||
| + | [[File:Hadcet3.png|800px]] | ||
Revision as of 14:27, 29 May 2019
CUSUM analysis - a statistical technique borrowed from the quality control discipline - is deceptively simple to calculate by spreadsheet or even by hand yet a powerful tool for screening out 'noise' and spotting trend changes
- calculate the deviations from mean average
- first value = 0
- second value = first value + first deviation
- third value = second value + second deviation
- and so on
- final value = 0 by definition of average must be so
The thing to look for is abrupt kinks in the graph, which shout 'something changed here'. The chart below - original work by FLUKE - appears to show four distinct trend periods: 1772 to 1892, 1892 to 1932, 1932 to 1988 and 1988 to present
